If Twitter is indeed looking to sell (and it sounds like it is) I’d be surprised to see a situation where “nobody out there wants it.” Twitter the platform isn’t going away; it’s too important. You know that as well as I. There are businesses out there that covet its value; it all just boils down to how much they want to pay for it.

This is a tough situation for investors no doubt. Whatever you decide to do, don’t let your emotions make your decision. It’s just no way to invest. And to be clear, I’m checking myself on that same front all the time, especially today where headlines are telling us that all hope is gone.

I’ve been as big a Twitter advocate from the investor’s perspective as anyone. I love the platform and all of its potential. But it’s not been a good investment. Some of you have asked what action I’m taking, if any. I own Twitter shares and my cost basis is $23 per share. I imagine my perspective is quite different from someone who has a cost basis of $45, but that’s investing and we all know price always matters. Much as it matters to any potential suitors. I have no intentions of selling any shares. I don’t need the money right now and I’ve consistently said that the 3rd and 4th quarters of this year would tell me all I need to know about where this business was headed. Either the live streaming initiative helps lead the way forward or it doesn’t.

Based on what we’ve heard it sounds like management would like to have a deal done by the time they announce results toward the end of this month, but who knows. I certainly don’t; I’m only going on what I’ve read. And if for some reason all of this acquisition talk turns out to be a total sham, well then I’ll reassess. But I’ll likely stick with my initial plan of giving the business the final two quarters of the year to see how it has been able to take advantage of the opportunities 2016 has presented.

Keep calm and hit ‘em with the Hein.
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JMo

​I’m starting to think I may have gotten this one wrong:

In all seriousness, it looks like I may ultimately be wrong on the timing here. In my defense, the logic made sense on the surface. If they really do have something good with the GoLive initiative it would make sense to want to see how those numbers shake out over the coming couple of quarters. But if it's a couple of things I've learned in life, we all get things wrong and I don't like people who can't embrace their mistakes. It's funny too that if Twitter is ultimately acquired I will likely make money on the deal yet I feel like I got this one wrong.

My investment thesis in Twitter has always revolved around three notions: It's an important network that has proven to be extremely difficult to replicate. Either they get it figured out under Costolo’s watch, they get it figured out under a new CEO’s watch, or they are acquired. Pretty simple. I’ve never suggested (nor do I suggest) one make acquisition the cornerstone of any thesis. It’s a bailout in some cases. You know it’s likely the worst-case scenario based on some competitive advantage so then it’s just a matter of price. And price always matters. Some reading this bought Twitter at $50 and are pissed. Others have a far lower cost basis and therefore likely have a more positive take on things. I fall in the latter and I hope you do too.
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It seems like there’s a lot of silly back and forth on the number for any potential Twitter bid. We’ll know if and when we know and I’ll stick with what I’ve said here:

Just remember, any serious bidders are considering it based on what they think they can do with Twitter going forward; not what you think the company is worth today based on its past transgressions. And chances are pretty, pretty, pretty good that any serious bidders are a hell of a lot smarter than you or I.

​Following up on my previous post, we got a nice surprise yesterday in regard to the topic of live streaming and discovery. Twitter’s TV apps have dropped so I thought some might like to see what the experience is like. This is from our Fire TV device at home; I downloaded the app last night and watched their sports show The Rally:

​In looking at the pictures in the Tweet in order you have the home screen on the left and scrolling down brings various Vine and Periscope content into the mix as well as Moments. The second picture (top right) is the show they recently inked a deal with called The Rally in full-screen (this is on our 55 inch TV and the picture was high-quality). I'll also say this show totally gives SportsCenter a run for its money; it's good. Then the third picture (bottom right) is where you can click on the right-hand arrow on the remote and go from the full-screen picture to having the show playing while incorporating the Twitter feed on the right. You can see on the first picture the tile also for Bloomberg, so it's probably safe to assume that this home screen will continue to fill with tiles of shows and leagues they sign on.
 
The football game tonight is obviously the big attention-getter, but these TV apps are going to bring a lot of content into play going forward. I imagine we'll see plenty of iterations that make it even better, but this is an encouraging first step in my opinion. Because of the live nature of the content Twitter is targeting (sports in particular) and the fact that you are not signed in to your Twitter account on the TV app (anyone can use it, you don't even need to have a Twitter account) Twitter has basically become a network on-demand Internet TV station that can advertise like any other during any sports event and we all know how lucrative that market can be, particularly with the data advertisers can glean via Internet distribution. While Twitter's MAU number of 313 million is nice (and also heavily criticized), this app really opens up that total audience opportunity and probably helps modestly grow that MAU number over time assuming they execute. As the media space continues to morph in the coming years thanks to the Internet and its profound impact on content distribution, there appears to be quite a bit of potential with offerings like these. It's great for consumers and could be quite nice for us investors as well.

​One of the big questions right now on Twitter users’ (and investors’) minds is in regard to their big NFL debut on Thursday night and specifically how we are going to actually be able to find where the game is on Twitter. And it’s a good question too. Here's a Tweet from CFO Anthony Noto today:

Discovery is going to be key to Twitter's success over the long-haul with its live streaming effort. The last thing management needs to do is play right into the age-old argument that Twitter is tough to use. But it's also important to remember that this is the first game, the first big event that they're promoting of ten all season. Everything to this point has been test and learn with a priority on video quality and timeline curation.  So this one game is not make or break, but it's crucial they learn everything they can from every game. Based on what we know I can see mobile discovery going one of a few different ways (and hey, possibly more):
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• They use Moments at the bottom of the mobile screen and have it in one of the current tabs at the top.
• They use Moments at the bottom of the mobile screen and add a tab at the top for all #GoLive stuff.
• They actually add a #GoLive button somewhere that is dedicated solely to live streaming content. (I'm going to go ahead and say I hope this is what we ultimately see and I know a lot of you feel this way too.)

My concern is that this stuff needs to be in-your-face obvious for users to find so I’d be more inclined to go with option #3. I can absolutely see a #GoLive button somewhere on the screen that then takes you to a screen with all of their live streaming content nicely organized. It would be sweet and I can only hope that someday we see it.

Based on Noto’s Tweet however it appears that Moments is indeed going to be the vehicle for delivery, at least in the beginning. I do at least understand their wanting to use Moments as a way to do this. It helps the cause and brings more people to it. It utilizes real estate that's already there and designed. And it's probably a pretty easy win for progress on the discovery front for #GoLive content, at least in the near term. As a power Twitter user I do check Moments daily, but I’ll also be the first to admit that it’s totally hit or miss for me content-wise.

The process seems simple enough in that we'd go to Moments and find the game somewhere. But here’s where they could screw things up if they aren’t careful. What if someone goes to Moments and the game isn’t the first thing showing on their screen? Now in theory this shouldn’t be a problem because the first time you check Moments when you first open the Twitter app it goes to the “Today” tab which is an obvious place to put the headline to the game on Thursday (and they should have that headlining that tab all day too). But maybe this is only obvious to me. Maybe they don't even put it on the "Today" tab (and I'd be on record with disagreeing with that move.) But if you go to Moments and swipe a few tabs over then go check your email (or another app) and then go back to Twitter later in the day it’s going to be on the last tab you were on in Moments before you checked your email or whatever app. And if enough time has gone by during the day between Twitter visits, you may not have that in-your-face notice that the game is going on. Not good. Now with this said, I'm pretty sure they're going to hammer the timeline with the game as well and it will be trending for the evening.

Adding a #GoLive tab at the top in Moments could solve a lot of problems. We'd go to Moments and then swipe to the #GoLive tab at the top and then scroll down the screen to see all of the live offerings. But organization is going to be crucial because live streaming on Twitter isn’t just about the NFL. They've got a lot of different stuff coming in sports, finance and other news and entertainment. Whatever they do one of the biggest mistakes they can make as I see it is to have these live streams scattered all over the place with no rhyme or reason. They MUST ultimately live in one location. It seems obvious enough, but hey, I don’t work there so I’m just spitballing here.

There has been a lot of testing leading up to this game on Thursday and I’m excited to see where they stand at this point in the live streaming strategy. I do not expect them to have it all figured out right out of the gate but I do know they've built a great experience thus far and I'll be watching. One of the big advantages to having these ten games is that they can learn, incorporate feedback and iterate. And if it’s one thing I’ve noticed generally speaking with Jack and Adam, they do care what we think and listen to users in trying to make the platform better. These are exciting times for Twitter users and investors, but remember this is one more step forward on Thursday and not the finish line.

Finding the best businesses just comes down to knowing what you’re looking for and then identifying the ones that meet most of if not all of your criteria. Here’s an entry level framework I use to try to determine if a business is worth investing in. Understand this is the first step, not the last, and to be sure they don't all carry equal weighting. But if you can come up with some compelling answers to these questions it can help get you on your way. Try taking one of your favorite current holdings and running it through. You're bound to learn something that will make you a better investor.

• Do you understand the business and how it makes money?
• Is there a large and/or growing market opportunity? What's its position in that market?
• Are there switching costs?
• Are there network effects?
• Are there any barriers to entry?
• Is there any pricing power?
• What is its competitive advantage?
• Is it growing revenue? Profitable? Cash flow positive? State of the balance sheet?
• Is there a short-term catalyst or long-term trend in play?
• Is management capable of leading this business? Do they own any of it?
• Is the price fair? Does it maximize the opportunity to beat the market over the next 3-5 years?

Just because the market seems expensive doesn’t mean that you can’t continue investing. Sure, you probably want to be a bit more picky, but one of the best things you can do as a long-term investor is to keep buying in the good times and the bad. In times like these I like to consider doing one of two things:
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1. Consider starting a position in one of those high quality businesses that I like so much but don’t own yet for whatever reason. (Hint: Think about the great businesses that make our world turn every day.)
2. Add to one or two of my winners that I intend to own for years to come.

Getting into market timing can be a slippery slope and we could sit here calling the market expensive for the next year and look back with regret at inaction. And the opposite is true as well. But when we're thinking in the context of years as investors we can eliminate that coin flip by simply keeping the ball rolling.

After a long wait Under Armour shares have now split. This is something that has been in the works for a while and was delayed for a bit as the company dealt with some litigation issues regarding the split. It seems some shareholders didn’t feel as secure regarding the transaction as others.

What Is This All About?
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Under Armour has historically maintained a dual class share structure with Class A shares and Class B shares. The B shares afford ten votes to the A shares’ one vote and seeing as founder and CEO Kevin Plank owns all of the B shares this has kept the ultimate voting power in his hands. As time goes on and stock is awarded as compensation, these awards can begin to dilute the power of those B shares and if not kept in check Plank in theory could lose his majority voting control; that’s what this split is all about.

The split is effectively two new shares for one old share and will result in shareholders owning one share of the ticker UA with one vote and one share of a new, non-voting Class C share with the ticker UA.C. Click here to read the company’s official press release. It’s important to note that we shareholders are not losing a vote here. We had one vote before the transaction and we have one vote after. And as before, the majority voting rights will remain with Kevin Plank.

Here’s What You Do

Nothing. It’s understandable that some shareholders may perceive this as a power grab for Kevin Plank and while there’s no question the purpose of this split is to keep the majority voting rights in his corner, I don’t have a problem with it. The fact of the matter is that Plank is responsible for making Under Armour what it is today and shareholders have won big time. Under Armour still has plenty of opportunities to grow and we should all remain happy shareholders.

Years ago we golf enthusiasts would glue ourselves to broadcast television at night to catch as much of the day’s Masters coverage we could get. It was almost always on the back nine and the TV screen was all we had. Fast-forward to today and we’re consuming our content in new ways that would have seemed unimaginable a short time ago.

As the new age of media continues to take shape Twitter (NYSE: TWTR) has established itself as an integral part of keeping in the know regarding the things we care about most. What started out as a simple messaging system a decade ago is now a robust and personalized communication platform for the masses.

With a family of media apps now including Vine and Periscope, Twitter has a number of channels of content creation and distribution. While many investors' primary focus has been on monthly active users (MAU) and whether or not Twitter can actually grow this metric, it’s a mistake to ignore the logged out audience that Twitter content reaches on a daily basis. Taking a bearish look on the company today seems en vogue, but investors would be wise to think more about the future and where Twitter can go from here. Founder and CEO Jack Dorsey and COO Adam Bain head up a team dedicated to the company’s long-term success and there are a number of opportunities on the horizon that will serve as potential catalysts to grow Twitter’s global presence including the summer Olympics, the presidential election and the recently inked NFL Thursday Night Football deal.

As an investor in the company myself I certainly feel the pain of the stock price not realizing its potential thus far. It’s clear in hindsight that former leadership didn’t have what it took. However it’s plain to see that Dorsey and Bain are setting this business up for long-term success as opposed to capitulating to Wall Street’s desire to boost the stock price in the short-run. Leadership focused more on managing a stock price as opposed to the business is a big red flag and we aren’t seeing even the slightest hint of that behavior from this leadership team which makes me feel good about where they are headed.

This is a higher risk investment for sure, but we are watching the new age of media take shape and Twitter is going to be a part of it thanks to its strengths in its reach and the real-time content produced on its platforms. There's plenty of potential indeed and I do believe they finally have the leadership team in place to start unlocking it. Investors who can stomach a little volatility, go against the masses and take a longer view may want to give Twitter a look today.

Disclosure: I own shares of Twitter.
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Risk: High

It’s no secret that ecommerce is a major long-term trend that is just starting to take hold. More and more businesses are discovering the value in selling their goods and services over the Internet and thanks to businesses like Amazon.com this is becoming the new normal. What this all means is that stuff needs to get from the seller to the buyer and that’s where today’s idea, UPS (NYSE: UPS) shines.

The Masters has an extremely limited number of global sponsors; five to be exact. And UPS is one of them. And why not? It is after all based in Atlanta, GA just a hop skip and a jump from Augusta National and it’s the world’s largest package delivery company. In fact in 2015 UPS delivered 4.7 billion packages and documents in more than 220 countries and territories.

One of the questions investors have been asking of late is in regard to Amazon’s shipping aspirations and whether that poses a threat to UPS and its ilk. While it’s not smart to underestimate anything Jeff Bezos sets his mind to, it’s also worth recognizing the fact that ecommerce today represents still just a small sliver of overall retail sales domestically; less than 10% to be exact. In other words, while there’s no question that Amazon will become a bigger part of this space going forward, there is going to be a lot of room to play in this sandbox and UPS has the brand, the reputation and the resources to help lead the way.

UPS is in good financial shape with $4.7 billion in cash and equivalents on the balance sheet. And while it maintains $14.3 billion in debt, that debt is stretched out nicely over many years and operating income covers net interest expense 24 times over. Of course a business like UPS will likely feel a bit of a pinch during times of higher fuel costs, but often those costs can be passed along to the customer in some capacity. There will be times when margins are challenged, but the longer the investor can stretch his or her timeline with UPS the better off they will be. With shares under 20 times trailing earnings today and a Masters-worthy dividend yield of 3%, UPS looks like a low risk way for investors to give their portfolio some nice stable growth.

Disclosure: I own shares of Amazon.com.

​Risk: Low

The Masters brings in the greatest players from around the world to compete for one of professional golf’s most coveted titles. And more players and patrons are utilizing the convenience of NetJets to get where they need to go without the hassles of flying commercial. In fact this year approximately 350 NetJets flights will operate in and out of Augusta from April 4-10.

“But Jason,” you may be asking, “is NetJets even a publicly traded company?” Well, no but yes. You see NetJets is actually a wholly-owned business of Warren Buffett’s baby, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) and there, my friend, is the investing angle.

I’m sure you all know about Berkshire Hathaway at this point. A collection of wholly-owned businesses ranging from insurance companies and energy companies to railroads and retail, Berkshire Hathaway is essentially a cross-section of the US economy. It also owns a portfolio of publicly traded companies like Coca Cola (NYSE: KO), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and even Deere and Co. (NYSE: DE).

Investing in Berkshire Hathaway is essentially like investing in a broad index fund with awesome management. Buffett and Vice-chairman Charlie Munger have built an outstanding culture that should continue to prosper long after they step down thanks to hires like Ajit Jain, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. And with shares hovering between 1.3 and 1.4 times book value today they’re a reasonable enough consideration for investors with a longer time horizon. It’s also worth noting that Buffett has set 1.2 times book value as the floor at which they will start buying back their own shares.

Any which way you cut it, Berkshire Hathaway is one of the highest quality businesses in the public markets today and investors interested in owning shares should plan on holding them for many years to come.

Disclosure: I own shares of Berkshire Hathaway B-shares.

​Risk: Low