I’m starting to think I may have gotten this one wrong:
Forget the Twitter deal talk. Focus on #GoLive for the rest of the year & then we'll regroup. $TWTR pic.twitter.com/8qGQivf77u
— Jason A. Moser (@TMFJMo) September 1, 2016
In all seriousness, it looks like I may ultimately be wrong on the timing here. In my defense, the logic made sense on the surface. If they really do have something good with the GoLive initiative it would make sense to want to see how those numbers shake out over the coming couple of quarters. But if it's a couple of things I've learned in life, we all get things wrong and I don't like people who can't embrace their mistakes. It's funny too that if Twitter is ultimately acquired I will likely make money on the deal yet I feel like I got this one wrong.
My investment thesis in Twitter has always revolved around three notions: It's an important network that has proven to be extremely difficult to replicate. Either they get it figured out under Costolo’s watch, they get it figured out under a new CEO’s watch, or they are acquired. Pretty simple. I’ve never suggested (nor do I suggest) one make acquisition the cornerstone of any thesis. It’s a bailout in some cases. You know it’s likely the worst-case scenario based on some competitive advantage so then it’s just a matter of price. And price always matters. Some reading this bought Twitter at $50 and are pissed. Others have a far lower cost basis and therefore likely have a more positive take on things. I fall in the latter and I hope you do too.
It seems like there’s a lot of silly back and forth on the number for any potential Twitter bid. We’ll know if and when we know and I’ll stick with what I’ve said here:
My investment thesis in Twitter has always revolved around three notions: It's an important network that has proven to be extremely difficult to replicate. Either they get it figured out under Costolo’s watch, they get it figured out under a new CEO’s watch, or they are acquired. Pretty simple. I’ve never suggested (nor do I suggest) one make acquisition the cornerstone of any thesis. It’s a bailout in some cases. You know it’s likely the worst-case scenario based on some competitive advantage so then it’s just a matter of price. And price always matters. Some reading this bought Twitter at $50 and are pissed. Others have a far lower cost basis and therefore likely have a more positive take on things. I fall in the latter and I hope you do too.
It seems like there’s a lot of silly back and forth on the number for any potential Twitter bid. We’ll know if and when we know and I’ll stick with what I’ve said here:
In regard to $TWTR worth if a deal is on the table I stand by what I told my friend @sal19 a couple of weeks ago: https://t.co/bhtQay8CJW
— Jason A. Moser (@TMFJMo) September 23, 2016
Just remember, any serious bidders are considering it based on what they think they can do with Twitter going forward; not what you think the company is worth today based on its past transgressions. And chances are pretty, pretty, pretty good that any serious bidders are a hell of a lot smarter than you or I.
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