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Why Any of This Matters

If you don't write down what you're thinking, you're short-selling yourself on some of your best ideas. That's why this is here.

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A Brief Explanation Of Under Armour's Split

4/8/2016

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After a long wait Under Armour shares have now split. This is something that has been in the works for a while and was delayed for a bit as the company dealt with some litigation issues regarding the split. It seems some shareholders didn’t feel as secure regarding the transaction as others.

What Is This All About?
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Under Armour has historically maintained a dual class share structure with Class A shares and Class B shares. The B shares afford ten votes to the A shares’ one vote and seeing as founder and CEO Kevin Plank owns all of the B shares this has kept the ultimate voting power in his hands. As time goes on and stock is awarded as compensation, these awards can begin to dilute the power of those B shares and if not kept in check Plank in theory could lose his majority voting control; that’s what this split is all about.

Stay cool, your Under Armour shares are fine. Split today turns them into $UA & $UA.C. This guy's got our back. pic.twitter.com/yXdRPBRC43

— Jason A. Moser (@TMFJMo) April 8, 2016
The split is effectively two new shares for one old share and will result in shareholders owning one share of the ticker UA with one vote and one share of a new, non-voting Class C share with the ticker UA.C. Click here to read the company’s official press release. It’s important to note that we shareholders are not losing a vote here. We had one vote before the transaction and we have one vote after. And as before, the majority voting rights will remain with Kevin Plank.

Here’s What You Do

Nothing. It’s understandable that some shareholders may perceive this as a power grab for Kevin Plank and while there’s no question the purpose of this split is to keep the majority voting rights in his corner, I don’t have a problem with it. The fact of the matter is that Plank is responsible for making Under Armour what it is today and shareholders have won big time. Under Armour still has plenty of opportunities to grow and we should all remain happy shareholders.
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Masters-ful Stock Ideas: Thursday

4/7/2016

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Years ago we golf enthusiasts would glue ourselves to broadcast television at night to catch as much of the day’s Masters coverage we could get. It was almost always on the back nine and the TV screen was all we had. Fast-forward to today and we’re consuming our content in new ways that would have seemed unimaginable a short time ago.

As the new age of media continues to take shape Twitter (NYSE: TWTR) has established itself as an integral part of keeping in the know regarding the things we care about most. What started out as a simple messaging system a decade ago is now a robust and personalized communication platform for the masses.

Watch early birdies from @JordanSpieth, @RickieFowler, @b_dechambeau, @TomWatsonPGA, and more. #themastershttps://t.co/AkZBIIUWEt

— Masters Tournament (@TheMasters) April 7, 2016
With a family of media apps now including Vine and Periscope, Twitter has a number of channels of content creation and distribution. While many investors' primary focus has been on monthly active users (MAU) and whether or not Twitter can actually grow this metric, it’s a mistake to ignore the logged out audience that Twitter content reaches on a daily basis. Taking a bearish look on the company today seems en vogue, but investors would be wise to think more about the future and where Twitter can go from here. Founder and CEO Jack Dorsey and COO Adam Bain head up a team dedicated to the company’s long-term success and there are a number of opportunities on the horizon that will serve as potential catalysts to grow Twitter’s global presence including the summer Olympics, the presidential election and the recently inked NFL Thursday Night Football deal.

As an investor in the company myself I certainly feel the pain of the stock price not realizing its potential thus far. It’s clear in hindsight that former leadership didn’t have what it took. However it’s plain to see that Dorsey and Bain are setting this business up for long-term success as opposed to capitulating to Wall Street’s desire to boost the stock price in the short-run. Leadership focused more on managing a stock price as opposed to the business is a big red flag and we aren’t seeing even the slightest hint of that behavior from this leadership team which makes me feel good about where they are headed.

This is a higher risk investment for sure, but we are watching the new age of media take shape and Twitter is going to be a part of it thanks to its strengths in its reach and the real-time content produced on its platforms. There's plenty of potential indeed and I do believe they finally have the leadership team in place to start unlocking it. Investors who can stomach a little volatility, go against the masses and take a longer view may want to give Twitter a look today.

Disclosure: I own shares of Twitter.
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Risk: High

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Masters-ful Stock Ideas: Wednesday

4/6/2016

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It’s no secret that ecommerce is a major long-term trend that is just starting to take hold. More and more businesses are discovering the value in selling their goods and services over the Internet and thanks to businesses like Amazon.com this is becoming the new normal. What this all means is that stuff needs to get from the seller to the buyer and that’s where today’s idea, UPS (NYSE: UPS) shines.

The Masters has an extremely limited number of global sponsors; five to be exact. And UPS is one of them. And why not? It is after all based in Atlanta, GA just a hop skip and a jump from Augusta National and it’s the world’s largest package delivery company. In fact in 2015 UPS delivered 4.7 billion packages and documents in more than 220 countries and territories.

One of the questions investors have been asking of late is in regard to Amazon’s shipping aspirations and whether that poses a threat to UPS and its ilk. While it’s not smart to underestimate anything Jeff Bezos sets his mind to, it’s also worth recognizing the fact that ecommerce today represents still just a small sliver of overall retail sales domestically; less than 10% to be exact. In other words, while there’s no question that Amazon will become a bigger part of this space going forward, there is going to be a lot of room to play in this sandbox and UPS has the brand, the reputation and the resources to help lead the way.

UPS is in good financial shape with $4.7 billion in cash and equivalents on the balance sheet. And while it maintains $14.3 billion in debt, that debt is stretched out nicely over many years and operating income covers net interest expense 24 times over. Of course a business like UPS will likely feel a bit of a pinch during times of higher fuel costs, but often those costs can be passed along to the customer in some capacity. There will be times when margins are challenged, but the longer the investor can stretch his or her timeline with UPS the better off they will be. With shares under 20 times trailing earnings today and a Masters-worthy dividend yield of 3%, UPS looks like a low risk way for investors to give their portfolio some nice stable growth.

Disclosure: I own shares of Amazon.com.

​Risk: Low

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Masters-ful Stock Ideas: Tuesday

4/5/2016

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The Masters brings in the greatest players from around the world to compete for one of professional golf’s most coveted titles. And more players and patrons are utilizing the convenience of NetJets to get where they need to go without the hassles of flying commercial. In fact this year approximately 350 NetJets flights will operate in and out of Augusta from April 4-10.

“But Jason,” you may be asking, “is NetJets even a publicly traded company?” Well, no but yes. You see NetJets is actually a wholly-owned business of Warren Buffett’s baby, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) and there, my friend, is the investing angle.

I’m sure you all know about Berkshire Hathaway at this point. A collection of wholly-owned businesses ranging from insurance companies and energy companies to railroads and retail, Berkshire Hathaway is essentially a cross-section of the US economy. It also owns a portfolio of publicly traded companies like Coca Cola (NYSE: KO), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and even Deere and Co. (NYSE: DE).

Investing in Berkshire Hathaway is essentially like investing in a broad index fund with awesome management. Buffett and Vice-chairman Charlie Munger have built an outstanding culture that should continue to prosper long after they step down thanks to hires like Ajit Jain, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. And with shares hovering between 1.3 and 1.4 times book value today they’re a reasonable enough consideration for investors with a longer time horizon. It’s also worth noting that Buffett has set 1.2 times book value as the floor at which they will start buying back their own shares.

Any which way you cut it, Berkshire Hathaway is one of the highest quality businesses in the public markets today and investors interested in owning shares should plan on holding them for many years to come.

Disclosure: I own shares of Berkshire Hathaway B-shares.

​Risk: Low

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Masters-ful Stock Ideas: Monday

4/4/2016

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I can’t remember a time when I didn’t see the Masters growing up on CBS (NYSE: CBS). In fact this year marks the 61st consecutive year CBS will broadcast the tournament. Of course that alone doesn’t mean CBS is a good investment idea, but it’s hard to argue with the fact that the business has remained an important piece of the US media landscape for decades.

The Internet has forever changed the media space in a very short amount of time; there are more ways to get more stuff than ever before. CBS operates in four segments with the corresponding operating profit in each:

  • Entertainment – 41.5%
  • Cable Networks – 30%
  • Publishing – 3.5%
  • Local Broadcasting – 25%

While CBS has dealt with some top line challenges over the last five years, earnings are another story; net income has basically doubled over that same time as the company streamlines its operations. In 2014 it spun off its outdoor advertising company, now Outfront Media (NYSE: OUT) and is now working on spinning off its radio business with a potential IPO coming soon.

Shares are trading at less than 20 times trailing earnings which could reflect some uncertainty on how the business looks a year or two from now as CEO and Chairman Les Moonves focuses on delivering high value content for viewers however they choose to consume it. Cord cutting is less of a concern as long as you’re taking advantage of the various methods of distribution that exist today versus just 10 years ago.

While net debt of just a bit more than $8 billion can seem a bit concerning at first glance, operating profit covers it more than seven times over and the debt is staggered out nicely over many years all the way to year 2045. The biggest question really is if they can continue to deliver the goods in the face of an ever-growing competitive environment. Online channels like Netflix and Hulu, while competitors to an extent today also serve as partners, but that won’t always be the case as they are producing more and more original content. In this game content is king and you gotta pay to play.

Still, Moonves has a lot of experience in the industry and I believe he's prepared and excited to take this business forward with properties like Showtime as well as high-value sports content like the NFL, NCAA basketball and football and of course the Masters. It’s also worth noting that CBS’s dual class share structure gives National Amusement close to 80% of the voting power and as Sumner Redstone’s legacy takes shape that could certainly have an effect on CBS and its role going forward. However National Amusement’s interest in CBS means it’s interested in CBS’s success, so I consider that a plus at the end of the day.

CBS shares have a history of performing well for investors. This is a cash flow rich business with a lot of valuable assets in the space. Smart leadership in Les Moonves could prove to be the ultimate catalyst in taking the stock to higher ground.

Disclosure: I own no stocks mentioned in this piece.

Risk: Medium
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A Week's Worth Of Masters-ful Stock Ideas

4/4/2016

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Golf and investing nerds rejoice! In honor of Masters week I’m going to highlight a tourney-inspired stock idea for each day of the week for your consideration (for those of you counting at home that means seven ideas in total). I’ve played golf all my life and have been investing for most of it too, so for me this is like peanut butter and jelly or chocolate and peanut butter; it just works.

A couple of quick points to make: I am offering these ideas for your consideration. I am not telling you to just go buy the stocks. That’s totally cool if you want to, it’s your call. But I advise you do your own homework (whatever that entails) to decide if a particular idea is for you. I will offer up a take on the company as a potential investment idea and place it in a risk bucket of low, medium or high based on considerations like competitive advantage, leadership, fiscal fitness, etc. And of course, we'll keep score.

Most of you know I work for The Motley Fool and while I owe much of my investing prowess to my time here, these ideas are not affiliated with my work here. This is something meant to be fun and educational but there will be no real-money actions on my behalf with this. I of course will disclose any and all personal and family holdings in the spirit of full transparency and will be happy to answer any and all questions regarding any of these ideas.

Before we get going I want to lay down a couple of quick ground rules. First, these ideas have to have some tie to the tournament. Second, I am going to make this a bit more interesting and eliminate both Under Armour (NYSE: UA) and Nike (NYSE: NKE) from consideration. Honestly people, these are both no-brainers in my opinion and if you don’t own them already you probably should take a closer look.

There will be no set schedule for the ideas other than one per day, so stay tuned. I’ll Tweet the links out when they’re ready. Enjoy the week!

JMo
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    Author

    My name is Jason A. Moser and I'm lucky enough to have a job doing what I love to do: investing. But my family, golf, music, watercolors, reading, writing, current events...these are all things that matter to me. Consider yourself warned.

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